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Expansion Dashboard
Check the current MLS
expansion outlook for
Portland and other cities.
expansion outlook for
Portland and other cities.
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Official Stadium Proposal.
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Atlanta
What is there to say about Atlanta? The city has the notorious reputation of not supporting major league
teams regardless of their record. MLS desperately wants a presence in the most valuable media market in
the South East. However, Atlanta hasn’t shown that the market can support another professional sports team
enough to justify an expansion bid. The possibility of an MLS team in Atlanta has received minimal coverage
in the media and only a few one-liners from Atlanta Falcons owner Arthur Blank. The city seems destined to
spend the foreseeable future in the USL first division.
Miami
Miami has already failed once as an MLS market when the Miami Fusion were contracted in 2001. With MLS
trying to complete their media footprint throughout the country and the South East the city has found itself
on many expansion short lists. However, even with all the rumors and speculation over the years, no investor
has stepped up to lead a firm expansion bid, and the city recently pulled the deal for a SSS (Soccer Specific
Stadium) off the table due to lack of interest. With the league now showing the promise of sustained
revenue, one has to wonder if this is really the right time to return to a once soiled market.
Montreal
With St. Louis most likely taking the first expansion slot for 2011, the second biggest threat to Portland
owner Merritt Paulson’s plan has emerged in the form of a Montreal bid. While the league has fallen in love
with the success of Toronto FC, both at the gates and the register, another Canadian city has risen as
contender for the second 2011 slot. The Montreal Impact’s billionaire owners, the Saputo family, have
teamed up with another billionaire, Liverpool co-owner George Gillette. This partnership offers the marriage
of big money and the “cosmopolitan” city that MLS is looking for. However, the recently completed 13,000
seat stadium needs to be expanded to about 20,000 seats. It also lacks many necessities, improved
concessions and luxury suites for example, which would help to provide the ancillary revenues needed for a
MLS franchise to be profitable.
New York
The New York Mets owner has stated interest in building a SSS next to the new Mets stadium in Queens. The
biggest enemy of this expansion effort is time. Getting anything done in New York is a LONG process (ask
yourself why both NFL teams play in New Jersey). The New York Red Bulls franchise, formerly the New York
Metrostars, took over 10 years to make their stadium a reality, and because of all the market logistics, is
still currently under construction in Harrison New Jersey. The driving force behind the desire for a second
team in the New York area is to give fans a team within the city, as most feel that the Red Bulls are a New
Jersey team. In order to capture the fickle New York sports fan, the expansion New York team must play in
New York City proper. As a result, Red Bull Park or Giants stadium may not be acceptable interim venues for
this team.
St. Louis
The most mature expansion effort of all the candidate cities is found in the Midwest as the St. Louis United
bid. This effort has already secured approval and funding for a stadium seating 18,500 and an
accompanying 400 acre retail and residential community across the river from downtown St. Louis in
Collinsville, IL. Essentially, Collinsville is to St. Louis as Vancouver, Washington is to Portland. The man
behind the effort is Jeff Cooper, who is worth a considerable sum but is still lacking a big money investment
partner to make his MLS bid a reality. It is interesting to note the long period of time that this expansion bid
has sat idle waiting for MLS approval, during which Philadelphia swept up the 16th team slot. However, a
betting man could wager that St. Louis will take the 17th expansion slot, barring an unforeseen catastrophic
event.
Vancouver
Much like Montreal, Portland’s current Cascadia Cup rival the Vancouver Whitecaps are also hoping to leave
the USL in their rearview mirror. Although their current plans for a downtown Vancouver waterfront stadium
have failed to materialize for years, their chances are not solely dependent upon that factor. MLS is on
record as stating that the revamped post-Olympic BC Place would be a suitable interim venue for a
Vancouver MLS franchise. Their billionaire owner Greg Kerfoot has recently added celebrity power to their
efforts with the inclusion into the ownership group of NBA star Steve Nash, a Vancouver native. Nonetheless,
it is doubtful that MLS will accept two Canadian cities in the same round of expansion, and it looks like
Montreal will likely get the nod first.
What is there to say about Atlanta? The city has the notorious reputation of not supporting major league
teams regardless of their record. MLS desperately wants a presence in the most valuable media market in
the South East. However, Atlanta hasn’t shown that the market can support another professional sports team
enough to justify an expansion bid. The possibility of an MLS team in Atlanta has received minimal coverage
in the media and only a few one-liners from Atlanta Falcons owner Arthur Blank. The city seems destined to
spend the foreseeable future in the USL first division.
Miami
Miami has already failed once as an MLS market when the Miami Fusion were contracted in 2001. With MLS
trying to complete their media footprint throughout the country and the South East the city has found itself
on many expansion short lists. However, even with all the rumors and speculation over the years, no investor
has stepped up to lead a firm expansion bid, and the city recently pulled the deal for a SSS (Soccer Specific
Stadium) off the table due to lack of interest. With the league now showing the promise of sustained
revenue, one has to wonder if this is really the right time to return to a once soiled market.
Montreal
With St. Louis most likely taking the first expansion slot for 2011, the second biggest threat to Portland
owner Merritt Paulson’s plan has emerged in the form of a Montreal bid. While the league has fallen in love
with the success of Toronto FC, both at the gates and the register, another Canadian city has risen as
contender for the second 2011 slot. The Montreal Impact’s billionaire owners, the Saputo family, have
teamed up with another billionaire, Liverpool co-owner George Gillette. This partnership offers the marriage
of big money and the “cosmopolitan” city that MLS is looking for. However, the recently completed 13,000
seat stadium needs to be expanded to about 20,000 seats. It also lacks many necessities, improved
concessions and luxury suites for example, which would help to provide the ancillary revenues needed for a
MLS franchise to be profitable.
New York
The New York Mets owner has stated interest in building a SSS next to the new Mets stadium in Queens. The
biggest enemy of this expansion effort is time. Getting anything done in New York is a LONG process (ask
yourself why both NFL teams play in New Jersey). The New York Red Bulls franchise, formerly the New York
Metrostars, took over 10 years to make their stadium a reality, and because of all the market logistics, is
still currently under construction in Harrison New Jersey. The driving force behind the desire for a second
team in the New York area is to give fans a team within the city, as most feel that the Red Bulls are a New
Jersey team. In order to capture the fickle New York sports fan, the expansion New York team must play in
New York City proper. As a result, Red Bull Park or Giants stadium may not be acceptable interim venues for
this team.
St. Louis
The most mature expansion effort of all the candidate cities is found in the Midwest as the St. Louis United
bid. This effort has already secured approval and funding for a stadium seating 18,500 and an
accompanying 400 acre retail and residential community across the river from downtown St. Louis in
Collinsville, IL. Essentially, Collinsville is to St. Louis as Vancouver, Washington is to Portland. The man
behind the effort is Jeff Cooper, who is worth a considerable sum but is still lacking a big money investment
partner to make his MLS bid a reality. It is interesting to note the long period of time that this expansion bid
has sat idle waiting for MLS approval, during which Philadelphia swept up the 16th team slot. However, a
betting man could wager that St. Louis will take the 17th expansion slot, barring an unforeseen catastrophic
event.
Vancouver
Much like Montreal, Portland’s current Cascadia Cup rival the Vancouver Whitecaps are also hoping to leave
the USL in their rearview mirror. Although their current plans for a downtown Vancouver waterfront stadium
have failed to materialize for years, their chances are not solely dependent upon that factor. MLS is on
record as stating that the revamped post-Olympic BC Place would be a suitable interim venue for a
Vancouver MLS franchise. Their billionaire owner Greg Kerfoot has recently added celebrity power to their
efforts with the inclusion into the ownership group of NBA star Steve Nash, a Vancouver native. Nonetheless,
it is doubtful that MLS will accept two Canadian cities in the same round of expansion, and it looks like
Montreal will likely get the nod first.
Portland: Current Outlook
Merritt Paulson is in China this week. For the Olympics . . . or to meet with MLS Commissioner Garber - who
is also in China this week? Sources close to Merritt suggest it is both. Sure, there’s nothing unusual about
two guys in the sports biz attending the Olympic games, but the reason to believe MLS is on the agenda is
that the next two weeks are critical for Merritt’s public campaign. Merritt’s spokesman Greg Peden is leading
the discussion in lents, while our source says that MP is waiting until his return to launch mlstoportland.com –
the official campaign website. The timing of this launch would seem to suggest that the content of the site
could be influenced by discussions during the China trip. That said, another week has passed in the run up
to October 15th with no milestones being reached. We are down 1% this week.
Portland: Next Steps
We are still awaiting the big reveal of Merritt's proposal. We now expect this to be the week of the 25th.
Merritt Paulson is in China this week. For the Olympics . . . or to meet with MLS Commissioner Garber - who
is also in China this week? Sources close to Merritt suggest it is both. Sure, there’s nothing unusual about
two guys in the sports biz attending the Olympic games, but the reason to believe MLS is on the agenda is
that the next two weeks are critical for Merritt’s public campaign. Merritt’s spokesman Greg Peden is leading
the discussion in lents, while our source says that MP is waiting until his return to launch mlstoportland.com –
the official campaign website. The timing of this launch would seem to suggest that the content of the site
could be influenced by discussions during the China trip. That said, another week has passed in the run up
to October 15th with no milestones being reached. We are down 1% this week.
Portland: Next Steps
We are still awaiting the big reveal of Merritt's proposal. We now expect this to be the week of the 25th.
Portland's Prospects
Competing Cities
Reading the Meters
Ok, granted it’s impossible to precisely measure the likelihood of landing the next MLS franchise, but we do our best to pseudo-quantify
developments in the race to 2011 on your expansion dashboard as they occur.
Portland’s Prospects – how likely are we to secure a spot? This meter reflects the current outlook on likelihood that an MLS franchise will be
secured in Portland for 2011. The scale is influenced by expected milestones such as a stadium proposal as well as ad-hoc information such as
articles, quotes, announcements, etc. Any average Portlander could impact this scale (however slightly) with any sort of significant or visible
statement on MLS plans to the extent it affects the city council’s support of the plan. Also, since there are a limited number of expansion slots,
Portland’s prospects are affected by developments in other cities.
Competing Cities – where do we stand?
We think there are 6 basic milestones for any city that pursues an MLS expansion slot. Generally a candidate city needs 1) a suitable market size 2)
a competent and wealthy owner group 3) a stadium plan 4) stadium funding 5) to fit with MLS expansion strategy 6) to overcome any city-specific
hurdles. This scale reflects where each city lies with respect to having checked off any of the six criteria.
Ok, granted it’s impossible to precisely measure the likelihood of landing the next MLS franchise, but we do our best to pseudo-quantify
developments in the race to 2011 on your expansion dashboard as they occur.
Portland’s Prospects – how likely are we to secure a spot? This meter reflects the current outlook on likelihood that an MLS franchise will be
secured in Portland for 2011. The scale is influenced by expected milestones such as a stadium proposal as well as ad-hoc information such as
articles, quotes, announcements, etc. Any average Portlander could impact this scale (however slightly) with any sort of significant or visible
statement on MLS plans to the extent it affects the city council’s support of the plan. Also, since there are a limited number of expansion slots,
Portland’s prospects are affected by developments in other cities.
Competing Cities – where do we stand?
We think there are 6 basic milestones for any city that pursues an MLS expansion slot. Generally a candidate city needs 1) a suitable market size 2)
a competent and wealthy owner group 3) a stadium plan 4) stadium funding 5) to fit with MLS expansion strategy 6) to overcome any city-specific
hurdles. This scale reflects where each city lies with respect to having checked off any of the six criteria.
| Expansion Meter (% likely) |